Summary
Why Investors Should Have Healthy Skepticism Around Macroeconomic Forecasting. Why Markets can surprise on the upside. The relationship between interest rates and different market segments isn’t set in stone. Change is the only constant in the markets.
Dziubinski: What’s the takeaway for an investor—just ignore forecasts? Lefkovitz: Well, I wouldn’t necessarily say ignore them, but just treat them with a healthy dose of skepticism. The consensus view on the economy has just been so off so many times lately.
The stock market has really rewarded optimism and made fools out of the skeptics and the doomsayers. Over the long term, I think valuation is a great way to think about equity market investing.
How Bonds Can Help Bring Diversification to Your Portfolio. Dziubinski: Now, your next lesson is that diversification isn’t dead, particularly the diversification that bonds can bring to a portfolio.
Dziubinski: The takeaway is investors don’t give up on bonds, but if they are a part of your asset allocation, are there some types of bonds that are going to be better diversifiers than others? Lefkovitz: I think it’s a perfectly sensible way to invest.
Lefkovitz: You want to be careful about the conventional wisdom around what kind of asset classes suit the macro environment. Change is the only constant in the markets.
Dziubinski: 2025 didn’t really upend any of these trends. Lefkovitz: Market leadership is changeable. The winners of the past are not necessarily the winners of a future.
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